A draft peace plan tied to the Trump administration would press Ukraine to surrender the eastern Donbas region and accept limits on its military in return for U.S. security guarantees, according to a Western official. The unofficial outline, described this week, lands amid a grinding war and fresh debate over how to end it without rewarding aggression.
The document, as described by the official, sketches a trade-off with steep political risks in Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington. It arrives as fighting continues along the front, talks remain frozen, and both sides brace for another winter of attacks.
What the Draft Proposes
“A new peace proposal for Ukraine drafted by the Trump administration would require the country to cede the eastern Donbas region and to limit the size of its military in exchange for security guarantees from the United States,” a Western official familiar with the document said.
The plan, as characterized, centers on two core demands and one promise:
- Ukraine cedes the eastern Donbas region.
- Ukraine accepts caps on the size of its armed forces.
- The United States offers security guarantees.
Details on borders, timelines, and enforcement are not public. It is also unclear what form the U.S. guarantees would take or how long they would last.
War Background and Prior Deals
Russia seized Crimea in 2014 and backed separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk. Full-scale invasion followed in 2022. Russia now holds large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, including much of Donbas. Estimates put the occupied area at roughly a fifth of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea.
Earlier efforts to stop the violence, such as the Minsk accords, failed to end fighting or settle status questions. Ukraine has pressed for a full withdrawal of Russian forces and the return of occupied land. Russia has demanded recognition of territorial gains.
Security pledges are a sensitive issue for Kyiv. In 1994, under the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances from the U.S., U.K., and Russia. Those assurances did not prevent later aggression, a point Ukrainian officials often raise.
Security Guarantees Versus Alliances
A formal alliance, like NATO membership, carries a mutual defense clause. Security guarantees can range from military aid and training to bilateral defense commitments. The strength of those guarantees hinges on clear terms and congressional backing.
Analysts say any credible guarantee would need defined triggers, funding, and rapid support mechanisms. Without those, Kyiv may see limits on its forces as a lasting handicap with little protection in return.
Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington Calculations
For Ukraine, yielding Donbas would be a severe political and moral cost. Leaders have pledged not to trade land for peace. Military caps could weaken deterrence and complicate defense planning.
For Russia, a deal that locks in gains in Donbas would meet long-held goals. It could also free troops for other fronts or reduce sanctions pressure. But Moscow may demand more, including recognition of Crimea and occupied areas in the south.
In Washington, such a plan would spark immediate debate. Supporters might argue it could stop the bloodshed and lower U.S. costs. Critics would call it a reward for invasion and a blow to international law. Any binding guarantee would likely need congressional approval and sustained funding.
Comparisons and Possible Outcomes
Some experts draw comparisons to frozen conflicts or armistice lines that halt fighting without resolving disputes. Those arrangements can reduce deaths but often leave future flare-ups likely. Others cite the risk that restraining Ukraine’s forces could invite pressure later.
If talks advance, key issues would include border demarcation, monitoring, sanctions relief, prisoner exchanges, and the scope of U.S. guarantees. Verification and enforcement would be central to any lasting calm.
The outline described by the Western official suggests a hard bargain: land and limits for promises. Whether Kyiv would accept such terms is uncertain, and Russia’s response is unknown. For now, the war grinds on, and winter is coming. The next signals to watch are any public details of the proposal, reactions from Ukraine’s leadership, and whether U.S. lawmakers would back the kind of security guarantee that could make or break the deal.
