Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., used a national TV platform to raise alarms about falling birth rates and what that means for the American dream. In a recent appearance on the program “Making Money,” Lawler tied the country’s long slide in fertility to concerns about future growth, Social Security, and the cost of living. His comments reflect a debate now moving from think tanks to kitchen tables.
Rep. Mike Lawler addressed “the country’s fertility crisis” and “the future of the American dream” on “Making Money.”
Fertility Is Falling, and So Are Births
U.S. birth rates have been trending down for more than a decade, according to federal data. The total fertility rate now sits well below the 2.1 births per woman needed to keep the population stable without immigration. Provisional figures for 2023 indicate new lows, extending declines that began after the Great Recession.
Researchers cite several factors. Housing and childcare costs weigh on family budgets. Women are having children later. Student debt and uneven wages add pressure. Many families report they want more children than they feel they can afford.
What’s Driving the Concern
Low fertility can shape the workforce, tax base, and care systems for years. Fewer young workers can mean slower growth and greater strain on programs that depend on payroll taxes. States with shrinking school enrollment face tough budget choices. Businesses worry about labor shortages and long-term demand.
Some economists say immigration can offset slower natural growth. Others warn that relying only on immigration, without family policy changes, may not be enough to support aging populations over time.
Policy Ideas On the Table
Lawmakers in both parties are testing proposals meant to make family life more affordable. The debate spans tax policy, workplace rules, and direct support. Many plans put working parents at the center.
- Expanded child tax credits or targeted credits for infants and toddlers
- Paid family leave to cover birth, adoption, and early caregiving
- Childcare subsidies and incentives to expand supply and reduce wait times
- Housing measures to increase starter-home construction and lower costs
- Student debt relief tied to family formation and early-career earnings
Supporters say these steps could reduce financial barriers and align with pro-family goals. Skeptics warn about costs, inflation risks, and the challenge of designing programs that help without waste.
The American Dream Angle
Lawler linked the fertility slide to anxieties about upward mobility. Wages have risen in recent years, but inflation and housing costs have outpaced many household budgets. Parents report that finding stable childcare is a hurdle to full-time work. Young adults face tight rental markets and steep mortgage rates, which delay homeownership and family plans.
Business leaders have responded with new benefits, including childcare stipends, flexible schedules, and enhanced parental leave. Early studies suggest such benefits improve retention, though results vary by sector and wage level.
How Other Countries Have Fared
Several peer nations have tried incentives to lift birth rates. France and Sweden pair cash benefits with generous leave and universal childcare. These efforts have steadied, but not reversed, long-term declines. Japan and South Korea show that money alone may not fix deeper issues like long work hours, housing pressures, and gender gaps in caregiving.
Analysts note that stable, predictable support works better than short-term bonuses. Policies that reduce the time and money costs of raising children tend to have broader effects than one-time payments.
What to Watch
Congress is likely to revisit the child tax credit and paid leave proposals in the coming sessions. States are moving ahead with their own pilots, testing childcare expansions and parental leave funds. Demographers will watch whether the post-pandemic birth rebound seen in some regions holds or fades.
Lawler’s focus signals that fertility and family policy are now core economic issues, not niche debates. The next steps will test whether Washington can craft programs that help parents, support growth, and keep costs in check.
Falling birth rates will not turn around overnight. But the policy choices made this year could shape family life and the economy for decades. Voters will judge which ideas make the American dream feel within reach again.
