The Air Apparent

In the 1970s, we had “real” winters. Temperatures were frequently in the 10- to 15-degree range and most years we had several snowstorms that disrupted traffic and left snow on the ground for weeks. As I write this article in early February 2008, it is 65 degrees outside and there’s a severe flood watch. It’s been 10 degrees warmer than the norm all winter long and snow seems a distant memory.

Unusual weather patterns are being experienced not only in Manhattan but throughout the United States and the rest of the world. A tornado struck Brooklyn last August. Portions of the Catskills experienced 100- year floods in 2006 and 2007. Many U.S. cities experienced extended periods of elevated temperatures approaching or exceeding 100 degrees last summer. Over 250 temperature records were met or exceeded in the U.S. in 2007. The Southeast continues to suffer from a long-term drought. Southern California experienced torrential rain and hail earlier this winter. And a powerful storm front resulted in dozens of tornadoes killing more than 50 people in five southern states.

Most of Europe experienced extreme heat waves last summer. Australia is experiencing a record-setting drought. A rare summer cyclone formed in the Indian Ocean last June. Substantive warming in the Arctic resulted in accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheets and floating sea ice last summer. And for the first time, substantive melting was recently reported in Antarctica.

What’s Happening

Approximately 30% of the energy that reaches the Earth via sunlight is reflected back to space by clouds, atmospheric dust and other reflective surfaces. Approximately 20% of the energy is absorbed by the atmosphere, the surprisingly thin layer of air that surrounds the planet. Approximately 50% of the energy is absorbed by the Earth’s surface. Even small changes in average cloud cover, atmospheric chemistry and/or the reflectivity of the planet’s surface can result in significant changes in the amounts of reflected or absorbed energy over time.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), representing approximately 2,000 of the world’s leading climate scientists, reported in February of 2007 that “11 of the past 12 years rank among the 12 warmest years on record.” The available climate change models indicate that the bulk of this warming is due to increased absorption of energy by the atmosphere due to higher atmospheric concentrations of three global warming gases — carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. The IPCC reported that these greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) have increased by approximately 70% from 1970 to 2004. As greenhouse gas concentrations increase, the impacts during the coming century will include the following:

• Average surface temperature will increase between 3.2 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit;

• Average sea level will rise between 0.6 to 1.9 feet (excluding potentially much greater increases due to accelerated Arctic melting and ice sheet flow);
• Increased frequency of heat waves and other extreme weather events; and
• Increased intensity and potentially increased frequency of hurricanes and cyclones.

IPPC also predicted a broad array of secondary impacts, including decreased water availability; increased droughts; increased damage from storms; flooding and wildfires; significantly decreased agricultural production; inundation of low-lying areas including islands and coastal areas; increased ocean acidification; substantive damage to numerous ecosystems; and negative impacts on human health due to heat stress, poor air quality and spread of tropical diseases. Up to 30% of all species on the planet will be at a significantly increased risk of extinction.

Potential Impacts on Businesses

The projected impacts associated with global warming over the next few decades are massive and will negatively affect every sector of the global economy. This includes impacts that directly affect small and large businesses as well as secondary impacts that will limit the ability of many businesses to market their goods and services. Some of the direct impacts include:

• Decreased availability and increased costs for energy, including increased energy and/or carbon taxes;